President Buhari’s Re-election Chances Are as Tall As El-Rufai

It is no longer news that President Buhari has
declared his interest to seek a second term in
office, much to the secret chagrin of his side kick,
Malam Nasir El-Rufai, who, though he feigns delight
at the President’s decision, is secretly disappointed.
His over ambition is very well known in power
circles and he was hoping that the President would
stand down and instead pick him as his proxy.
But that is not my focus for this piece. My focus is
the reason the President gave for wanting to be re-
elected President.
A statement released by the Presidency, “the
President said he was responding to the clamour by
Nigerians to re-contest in 2019.”
Notice the language. The President is not running
because he has a good record of achievement (he
does not). He is not running because he has plans
to implement (again, he does not). He is also not
running because he has unfinished projects to
complete.
President Buhari instead is running because of the
“clamour by Nigerians”. But who are these
Nigerians?
The mistake people in the South of Nigeria make is
to believe that President Buhari is still popular in his
Northwest base. That is a fallacious assumption
and I can prove it.
On February 16, 2018, after gunmen butchered his
citizens like chicken in Zurmi, Governor Abdulaziz
Yari said;
“I feel let down facing the people of this state
whenever I remember the promise I made to them
that when they elect President Muhammadu Buhari
into power, these killings will end. But unfortunately,
things are now getting worse.”
Those sentiments represent the feelings of the
ordinary people of the Northwest with regard to
President Buhari.
Obviously, from the comments of the Governors of
Benue and Taraba states as well as the recent earth
shattering statement by TY Danjuma, even the most
pollyannaish supporter of President Buhari knows he
has lost the North Central and huge swathes of the
Northeast.
Contrary to pedestrian Southern opinions about
Northern Nigerians, they are not just masses of
sheeples who will support any Northerner no matter
his performance. They are not masochists. They
have compared their present lot to what it used to
be under Jonathan and they have found Buhari
wanting.
At the risk of repeating a very popular meme, sai
Buhari! has turned to chai Buhari in the North!
In every sphere of the human development index,
the Buhari administration has fared worse, much
worse than the Jonathan government.
In every measurable index of government
performance, the Buhari regime has paled when
compared to the Jonathan administration.
On May 29, 2015, when President Buhari took over
from former President Jonathan, the Nigerian
economy was buoyant and had just been projected
as the third fastest growing economy in the world
after China and Qatar. Inflation was at a single digit
rate of 8.7%. We had had a consistent year over
year annual GDP growth rate of over 6% and the
Naira had been stable for four years at ₦150 to $1
and in the fifth year (2015) had moved slightly to
₦199 to $1. Fuel was ₦87 per liter and our food
import bill had dramatically reduced.
However, after three years of Buhari in the saddle,
Nigeria has had a recession, her first in 25 years.
We were not even featured in the top 15 fastest
growing economies in Africa talk less of the world.
Inflation moved to double digits. The value of Naira
tanked to the extent that Bloomberg listed it as the
worst performing currency in the world in 2016 and
one of the worst performing currencies of 2017.
The price of petrol was increased from ₦87 per liter
to ₦145 per liter under the guise that fuel subsidy
had been stopped, only to find out that the
government had continued paying the subsidy but
had hidden it by disingenuously renaming it under
recovery!
In the area of security, Nigeria which on May 29,
2015 was the fourth most terrorized nation in the
world according to the Global Terrorism Index had
by 2018 become the third most terrorized nation in
the world according to the same index. Death by
herdsmen had increased in occurrence and Boko
Haram, which President Buhari had boasted was
‘technically defeated’ was managing to still storm
military formations and kidnap school girls.
But it is in the area of anti corruption that the Buhari
administration had proven to be a huge
disappointment. He had been sold to Nigerians by
Momoh and his ilk as a man of integrity who was
incorruptible. Well, the facts don’t lie. According to
Transparency International, Nigeria is now more
corrupt under Buhari than ever before.
Whereas we were at 136 in Transparency
International’s Corruption Perception Index when
Buhari assumed power in 2015, according to TI,
Nigeria has retrogressed so badly in the anti
corruption war, that we are now moved 12 places
backward to 148.
So with these facts in mind, it is not surprising that
Buhari is refusing to run on his record.
Recently, some of the President’s supporters have
found it difficult to sustain the comparison of their
principal’s performance with that of former President
Jonathan, so they have shifted base and now say
that President Buhari’s three years in office as a
civilian President has yielded more benefits to
Nigeria than the eight years of former President
Obasanjo.
Let us interrogate that assertion factually. In
Obasanjo's eight years in office as President of
Nigeria, he paid off Nigeria's entire foreign debt of
$30 billion. But in three years, Buhari has borrowed
more money than all the governments in the last 16
years combined.
Under Obasanjo, Nigeria moved from a poor nation
to a middle income nation. Under Buhari, Nigeria
had her first recession in 25 years.
So what rationale can anyone have for making the
preposterous claim that Buhari has outperformed
Obasanjo?
Even Buhari himself knows such claims can not
stand before Nigerians. I mean, look at what
happened when he declared his second term
ambition.
President Buhari declared his intention to contest
the Presidency for a second term and the Nigerian
stock market crashed. Investors are taking their
money and leaving Nigeria.
And would you blame them? Even Buhari himself
left Nigeria after declaring. He knew what his
declaration had done to Nigeria. No one wants to
hang around when the air is polluted. And what
Buhari did on the day he declared is to pollute
Nigeria!
Nigeria needs a breath of fresh air in 2019. We do
not need someone who pollutes the economic,
political and social air over Nigeria and then runs to
his United Kingdom base to leave us to breath the
air he polluted!
I am a spiritually inclined man, and I know that
there are significance beyond the natural to names,
dates and figures.
It is a good thing that it was Nasir El-Rufai who first
announced President Muhammadu Buhari’s second
term because the President’s chances of being re-
elected are as tall as El-Rufai.
In fact, it is more than good. It is almost prophetic
that the President chose to announce his second
term through El-Rufai. Rearrange the name El-Rufai
and you find that the same letters that make up the
word failure, make up the name El-Rufai.
Just like Lai Mohammed’s destiny is to lie for
Buhari, so El-Rufai’s destiny is to prophesy Buhari's
failure! A man whose supporters cannot declare one
thing he has initiated and completed has declared
us all fools by this second term declaration.
Right now, the man who declared his second term
ambition is in the United Kingdom. He went there a
full 10 days before the Commonwealth Heads of
Government Meeting. We are not fools. We know
why he went there so early. No one declares for a
second term and absconds like he has done. No
one.
How long will we keep having leaders who only use
Nigerian medical facilities for the veterinary
treatment of their dogs and other domestic and
farm animals but only use foreign hospitals for
themselves and their loved ones at public expense?
Is this the change we were promised?
This is a question we will answer next year, and I
have this warm fuzzy feeling that President Buhari
may not like Nigeria’s answer to that question.
Reno’s Nuggets
Stay in school. Graduate. But don’t think school
automatically makes you rich. Almost all of the
world's top 10 richest men never graduated.
Academic success does not guarantee success in
the real world. It is what you learn outside school
that does the trick. And the trick to wealth is in
starting your own business. You ask how do I to
start a business? Easy! Get a sheet of paper. Write
a list of things you are naturally talented at. Find
people who would pay you to do any of the things
on that list for them. When you find them, under
promise and over deliver. And voila, you have a
business.